By Janis Siegel, JTNews Correspondent
Despite recent reports that Jews are flocking to the Republican Party in droves, polls show that the Jewish vote is trending only slightly Republican, though younger voters are moving in that direction more than in the past. Researchers and observers say the Democratic Party doesn’t need to worry about losing Jewish support in the 2004 presidential election — that is, unless it’s a close race.
In a tight presidential contest, the large Jewish populations in nine swing states could make a huge difference. Though in general considered to be a swing state, the Jewish vote will most likely not have a large effect in Washington.
Polls show that Jewish voters remain overwhelmingly Democratic in their voting patterns and party allegiance, but Orthodox Jews, younger Jews, and Jews from interfaith households are voting increasingly more Republican.
They are already overturning the outcomes of some local and state elections.
“We have to remind ourselves that Jews will basically be Democrats,” said Dr. Steven F. Windmueller, director of the School of Jewish Communal Service at Hebrew Union College in Los Angeles and a Fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
“Elements in the Jewish community are generally shifting because of security issues but these shifts are only important in light of a close election.”
Windmueller’s research specializes in Jewish political affairs, modern Jewish history and the American Jewish community.
“In November 2002 and again during the recall election on October 7, 2003, California Gov. Gray Davis received 69 percent of the Jewish vote,” wrote Windmueller in a Dec. 2003 article on recent Jewish voting patterns called Are American Jews Becoming More Republican? Insights Into Jewish Political Behavior.
“According to one scenario,” he continued, “the Jewish vote might still be significant in determining the 2004 presidential election. Nine key states with significant Jewish populations account for 212 electoral votes, or 78 percent of the total needed to secure the White House.”
A Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that as of April 20, 80 percent of voters have already made up their minds in the presidential election, leaving the fate of the candidates squarely in the hands of the undecided, the independent and the swing voter.
In a Luntz Research Poll conducted in April 2003, 48 percent of the Jews polled said they would consider voting for George Bush in 2004.
And the December 2003 American Jewish Committee Annual Survey of American Jewish Opinion revealed that in a race with then-front-runner Howard Dean, 31 percent of the 1,000 Jews polled said they would vote for Pres. George Bush as compared to the 19 percent who voted for him in the 2000 election.
“It’s not as if Jewish voting behavior has not changed at all,” said Kenneth Bandler, director of Communications at AJC headquarters in New York. “It’s changed slightly but that’s because the population as a whole has shifted as a whole.”
The AJC has been conducting the same survey since 1997 and will conduct the same survey again in June 2004. It also asks respondents their attitudes on various Jewish issues like the Arab-Israeli conflict; U.S. Jews and Israel; anti-Semitism and more.
“There is nobody that thinks that George Bush will win a majority of the Jewish vote (in 2004),” said Bandler. “People have been predicting [a Republican majority ] for 25 years and it hasn’t happened.”
But as the election season heats up, candidates may also focus more and more on younger voters — both Jewish and non-Jewish.
According to a Harvard Institute of Politics Poll from October 2003, 41 percent of the 1,202 college-aged voters polled said they are registered independents and 52 percent say they are centrists when it comes to social issues.
A July 2003 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Survey showed that 64 percent of Jews over 40 identified with the Democratic party in contrast to the 47 percent of Jews under 40 who called themselves Democrats.
“The traditional buy-in to the Democratic Party is not there, because you have other ‘players’ whose backgrounds are different,” said Windmueller, referring to Jews who were raised in mixed faith households where one partner was not Jewish. “For them, the Israel card is not really a factor. Economic security and quality of life are important for them.”
Absent an all-out security crisis in the Middle East, Bandler says younger voters are feeling more like protecting their financial portfolios.
“Yes, the Jewish issue is the single most important issue for Jews,” said Bandler, “but it ends up being irrelevant. If we had a candidate in either party who was perceived to be an anti-Israel candidate, then that would be a very dramatic issue.”
The GQR Survey also shows that as younger Jews become more assimilated, they become more susceptible to the voting trends and social pressures of other younger voters, meaning they are more likely to support third-party candidates and lean toward the Republican Party.
Mindy Goldberg, president of Huskies For Israel, the Jewish, pro-Israel, student-run organization on the University of Washington campus in Seattle, sees members of her group gravitating toward the Republican Party because of their support of Israel. Her Seattle members aren’t changing their party affiliation, but she sees the trend growing nationally.
“I definitely see this happening,” said Goldberg, who spent time on college campuses in Washington, D. C. this summer on behalf of Huskies For Israel. “I was surprised at how many Jews were active in Jewish Republicans on campus.”
Although only two out of the 24 members of Huskies For Israel are Republicans, Goldberg says Seattle is not representative of the rest of the country. She says that even if her Seattle members don’t identify as Republicans, they might side with Bush because of his politics with Israel and security issues.
“It’s much easier to talk Israel with Republicans, and we feel more welcome around Republicans within the group,” said Goldberg. “When I went to speak to the Young Democrats on campus they were definitely more skeptical and questioning.”
Whether this trend in Jewish voting patterns continues or becomes a blip on the political radar screen remains to be seen. But Windmueller believes there are benefits either way.
“It’s actually good for politicians to see that the Jewish vote is always in play and it’s good for the Jewish community to constantly re-visit the public positions of the community.”