By Leyna Krow, Assistant Editor, JTNews
In Alan Dowty’s mind, there are no good guys or bad guys when it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict.
“Hegel said, ‘tragedy is right versus right.’ I think that fits this situation very well,” Dowty told a crowded classroom at the University of Washington on the afternoon of Jan. 6. The engagement was presented by the UW’s Stroum Jewish Studies Program.
Alan Dowty is a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Notre Dame. He is the author of six books and more than 130 articles on the Arab-Israel conflict, Israel, and U.S. foreign policy.
Dowty’s talk, “The Fourth Stage of the Arab-Israel Conflict,” focused on the evolution of the conflict, the current forces at play, and speculations for the prospect of a peaceful resolution. He began, as the title of the lecture suggested, by detailing what he sees as the four distinct stages the conflict has gone through thus far.
According to Dowty, the first stage, which began when the first Zionists began arriving in Palestine and lasted until 1948, was primarily a time of cultural tension and sporadic, isolated instances of aggression. The second stage, from 1948 to the early 1990s, was characterized by Israel’s conflicts with its neighbors. The third stage, from the early 1990s to approximately 2006, saw the Palestinians emerge as key actors in the conflict.
He stressed that in the first three stages, “nationalism, not religion, was the dominant force.”
Beginning in 2006, the conflict entered a fourth stage, which Dowty said is characterized by several key changes, including an increase in outside pressure from countries like the U.S. or Iran, the decline of state authority, and the rise in power of non-state actors and changes to the way military battles are fought, both in terms of technology and strategy.
But, according to Dowty, the most important component of this fourth stage is the shift from nationalist to religious radicalism as a key motivator in the conflict.
This is unfortunate, he said, because religious radicalism provides “un–matched justification for violence and self-sacrifice.”
He was quick to point out that religious radicalism has emerged as a key force on both sides of the conflict, even though the extremism of the Palestinians gets more coverage in the international media.
“The extremists on both sides are in fact allies,” he said. “They need each other to continue to disrupt efforts at peace. They reaffirm one another’s existence.”
Dowty picks 2006 as the year in which the fourth stage really got underway because Hamas took control of the Palestinian Authority by popular vote.
But Dowty noted that although the trends that mark this fourth stage are concerning, they don’t necessarily mean the Israelis and Palestinians are moving farther away from the prospect of peace. Although he doubts the fourth stage will be the final stage of the conflict, he pointed to several elements of the current conflict that indicate that change, for the better, is in the air.
Religious radicalism can only remain a central feature of the conflict for so long, Dowty insisted.
“Ideological movements tend to lose steam over time,” he said.
He also pointed to a recent survey in which a majority of both Israelis and Palestinians supported not only peace negotiations, but also the prospect of a two-state solution. This is something new, unseen in any of the previous three stages of the conflict.
Dowty briefly offered consideration for the possibility that Israel and the Palestinian territories might merge to become a single bi-national state. However, he was quick to point out that neither side would get a national identity, something that has been a priority for both groups since the beginning of the conflict.
He also noted that there have only been two successful instances of bi-national states in recent world history: Canada and Belgium. Given the hostility that has existed between the Palestinians and Israelis for so long, Dowty said, a two-state solution seems the most pragmatic solution.
“In the end, a difficult divorce is better than a miserable marriage,” he said.