By Sean Savage, JNS.org
With the launch of the Israeli army’s Operation Protective Edge in Gaza, much of the public’s attention has appropriately focused on Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group accused of being behind the June 12 abduction and murder of three Jewish teens and more recently the escalation of rocket fire on Israel. But the threats the Jewish state faces from Gaza may not be as clear-cut as they seem.
While Hamas is still extremely deadly, it has seen a weakening of its grip on the coastal enclave over the past few years, due to challenges from other Islamic terror groups and isolation from its former patrons in the Muslim world.
“Hamas has been on the brink of collapse,” Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JNS.org. “It has become very isolated politically and economically.”
“It is very difficult to figure out what Hamas’s calculus is [in its current escalation with Israel],” Schanzer added. “Hamas may have nothing to lose, but on the other hand, they could have really overplayed their hand, which could lead to complete devastation of their assets.”
Since taking control of Gaza in 2007, Hamas has seen a steady decline in its support from the Palestinian people and the rise of other Islamic terrorist groups there — including its main Palestinian rival, Islamic Jihad, as well as al-Qaeda-inspired Salafi global jihadist groups.
In February, leaders of the Salafist factions known as the Al-Quds Mujaedeen Shura Council in Gaza issued a statement pledging allegiance to Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS), which has made global headlines for its brutality and swift victories in the Syrian civil war and Iraq.
These Gaza-based Salafi jihadist groups have often been at odds with Hamas and have been targeted by Hamas’s internal security forces. At the same time, these groups have also been responsible for rocket fire on Israel, both from Gaza and Salafi groups operating in the Sinai Peninsula. This includes rockets fired on the southern Israeli city of Eilat in January 2014.
Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that jihadists from ISIS — now also known simply as “Islamic State” — have attempted to infiltrate Gaza from Egypt, the Gatestone Institute reported.
According to the Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm, 15 ISIS terrorists were arrested by Egyptian security forces trying to enter Gaza from the Sinai. Eyad al-Bazam, a spokesman for Hamas, has flatly denied the reports, calling them “blatant lies” and part of an Egyptian smear campaign against Hamas.
Nevertheless, at a recent funeral for two terrorists killed in late June by the Israel Defense Forces, ISIS flags were seen wrapped over the dead body of one of the terrorists. ISIS flags were also seen during their funeral procession through Gaza.
Like other jihadist groups in Gaza, Hamas sees the presence of ISIS as a direct threat to its rule. Hamas also faces challenges from other rocket-launching Palestinian terror groups such as Islamic Jihad, which has received increased funding from Iran. Aside from that growing internal threat, Hamas is increasingly isolated within the Muslim world.
For many years, Hamas relied on Iran and its partners, Syria and Hezbollah, for military and financial support. All of that changed, however, following the group’s December 2012 fallout with Iran and Syria over the Syrian civil war. Hamas then decided pursue support from Sunni powers such as Turkey, Qatar, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, all of which were on the rise at the time.
But since the July 2013 ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas has found itself in the crosshairs of Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Egypt’s new president.
Hamas has lost significant funds from the Egyptian closure of smuggling tunnels, which the group operated for the dual purpose of revenue as well as the smuggling of rockets and other weapons.
“This time the Egyptians will not help [Hamas] out in this mess,” Schanzer told JNS.org, referring to previous Egypt-brokered ceasefire deals between Israel and Hamas such as the one that ended the November 2012 Israel-Gaza conflict.
For Israel, the rise of global jihadist groups in Gaza and Hamas’s isolation there creates a different set of problems. If Hamas becomes severely weakened, Salafi jihadist groups or Islamic Jihad may use the opportunity to seize control of Gaza.
“[Israeli operations] might create a vacuum where it can give rise to other jihadi groups who would be worse than Hamas,” Schanzer said.