By Felice Friedson, The Media Line
“Most Palestinians want the [kidnapped Israeli] kids to be alive and to be found,” says Dr. Nabil Kukali, the founder and president of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, in an exclusive interview. “This will help the Palestinian cause.”
Dr. Kukali spoke with The Media Line about the kidnapping, the respective strengths of Fatah and Hamas; and predictions for the unity elections due to be held within a matter of months.
TML: In 2006, Hamas won the election; Fatah was blamed for corruption and Hamas provided social services, which ensured that vote. Has the dynamic changed?
Kukali: According to our polls, yes. I think that if we have elections today, and Fatah planned and organized, Fatah will win the election.
TML: Why?
Kukali: Now I think it’s time for a change and especially in Gaza. Palestinians in Gaza have been under Hamas control and now they know Hamas very well and are disappointed in Hamas. And I don’t think they will have the majority as they used to. In Gaza, I think Hamas has lost its good position. And now as Palestinians in particular and Arabs in general, we don’t believe in the Muslim Brotherhood to control them. We have a lot of extremists now in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, and people are disappointed in them.
TML: Do you have any data that backs this up?
Kukali: Yes, I just published a poll within the past two weeks that showed support for Fatah at around 36 percent and Hamas around 16 percent; and we did it in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. There are 13 Palestinian political parties, but many people will vote as independents. I expect about 3 percent will vote Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and many won’t vote.
TML: Do you see Hamas winning in any other area, like the parliamentary election?
Kukali: It depends on Fatah. If Fatah divides many candidates for the elections like it did in the last elections, Fatah will lose. But if they have become united, and they have only one list, they will win the election.
TML: If women had to vote today, who would they vote for?
Kukali: I think they would choose Fatah. For the West Bank they did a lot of good things. We have security now in the West Bank. People there are satisfied in general with the Palestinian Authority through their achievements. They are happy with Abu Mazen [P.A. President Mahmoud Abbas], too.
TML: Is there a belief among Palestinians that Hamas is not responsible for the abduction of the three Israeli teenagers?
Kukali: I didn’t do a poll for that, but from my point of view, Hamas is not part of that. Maybe others, but not Hamas. Maybe people who are not happy with what Hamas did with Palestinian unity — they want to do something; but I don’t think Hamas is a part of that. If Hamas wants to do things like that, why did they go for the unity with the P.A.? I don’t think so. Hamas wants the elections, they want the Palestinian unity, they want to open the border for free crossing with Egypt. I don’t think Hamas will do that. I didn’t do polls until now, but this is my point of view.
TML: Recently there were demonstrations in Jenin where Palestinian leaders called for children to be shaheeds (martyrs). How can the Palestinians be unified when some are calling for violence and some are calling for non-violence?
Kukali: We don’t want to have events where it’s only a minority of people and we generalize it to the whole population. No one will agree on everything. There is nothing with 100 percent agreement: some people agree and some people disagree, but the majority of the Palestinians with unity believe in Abu Mazen to negotiate with the Israelis. With the peace process, only a minority are against that. So we can’t generalize for the Palestinian people what happened in Jenin or, for example, in Hebron or something else. In general, the Palestinians are in favor of making peace with Israel and believe Abu Mazen is the guy who can make peace with Israel.
TML: Will the Israeli campaign against Hamas strengthen or weaken the Islamist movement?
Kukali: They [the Israelis] help Hamas to get more popularity. What is going on now is to the benefit of Hamas.
TML: So what is the forecast, both regarding the kidnapping and the unity elections?
Kukali: First of all, I think the Palestinians want the kids to be alive and to be found. And hope they are still alive…that’s very important…this will help the Palestinians and the Palestinian cause. It’s very important that they be alive and come back to their homes and families.
Regarding elections, Fatah is the majority, but we should be careful. I mean that Fatah should have one list for the election. There are other lists from Fatah that makes Fatah compete with itself. One of the reasons Fatah lost the last election is because there is a formal Fatah list and other lists that are independent — they used to compete with each other. In this election, if this happens they will lose. But if they have one list they will win the election.
TML: If the Israeli boys are not alive, then what is the scenario?
Kukali: If they are killed, the Palestinians will lose a lot of international support. But Netanyahu knows that the people who did that do not get any support from the Palestinian Authority. And Abu Mazen said these people try to destroy the Palestinians. They are a minority of less than one percent. The world will understand that we are not with the kidnapping of the three kids.
TML: Israel has been against a unity government, Fatah with Hamas. What does that do to any kind of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians?
Kukali: First of all, the one who runs the negotiations with the Israelis is not the government itself. The one who runs the negotiations with Israel is the PLO [Palestine Liberation Organization]. We should be careful about that. The unity government is not in charge of political issues; only to run the Palestinian society, not to negotiate with the Israelis. And the majority of this government, they support the peace process and they support Abu Mazen — some of them are independent. Abu Mazen said, “This government will go through under my control.” I think the Israelis made a mistake because these people are not Hamas. And I think the Palestinians should have new elections. If we don’t have a unified government it means we will never go for elections.
Hamas last time just won the election by chance — people were tired of the old regimes from the P.A.; they were tired of corruption and wanted change and they thought Hamas was much better, but now they discovered that Hamas is not what they wished to have. And Fatah will win the elections.
TML: Looking at the economy for a moment: it was doing well a couple of years ago when then Prime Minister Fayyad took the reins; but it’s not so now. How is that going to change?
Kukali: I will tell you some data we will publish shortly: Just like you mentioned, the Palestinians are suffering from the economic situation according to our poll [1,000 people contacted, 38 percent in the Gaza Strip and 62 percent in the West Bank.]
Asked about economic conditions, 9.2 percent said they are “good”; 28 percent said “medium” — not bad, not good; and 61 percent said the economic condition is bad. This compared to June 2011, when only 36 percent answered “bad.” People are really worried about their economic situation and the future of their kids. I think that after the Israeli measures in the West Bank and Gaza, the situation will become worse than this poll indicates because we did this poll during the kidnapping. After the results of the kidnapping become apparent, I will know what will happen. I hope everything will be fine in the future.