By Erez Ben-Ari, Special to JTNews
Will Israel’s next government survive for more than 18 months? According to Joel Migdal, professor of international studies at the University of Washington, this seems unlikely. In a presentation held at Congregation Beth Shalom on Feb. 10, the day Israelis went to the polls, the professor spoke about the recent elections in Israel, and shared his analysis of the results. The situation seems dire, Prof. Migdal said, and it looks like Israel is headed toward yet another unstable government.
Even since the state of Israel was established, its politics have been based on the parliamentary system. For the first 30 years, things went reasonably well, he continued, but that was a long time ago. In the past 25 years, only one prime minister has actually been able to finish his four-year term, and the rest were lucky if they survived for more than 18 months.
In his presentation, Prof. Migdal provided a brief history of the country’s political turmoil. Unlike the American political system, the Israeli public does not vote for the prime minister. Instead, each political party runs an internal vote to elect the party leader and a ranked list of candidates. During the general elections, each citizen votes for his or her favorite party and the parties receive seats in the Knesset according to their share of the votes, out of a total of 120 seats.
Following the elections, Israel’s president chooses the party with the highest chances of being able to form a government, and that party’s elected leader will be the prime minister. The choice would typically go to the party who won the largest number of votes, but in some situations, the president may choose another party.
The selected party’s leader is given three weeks to form a government comprised of at least 61 ministers. If the party’s seat assignment is smaller than 61, the PM candidate must form an agreement with other parties, and that requires, of course, a long and tough negotiation process.
For many years, Migdal said, Israel was led by the left-wing MAPAI party, which changed its name several times. For the most part, MAPAI, now called “H-Avodah,” or Labor, was large, stable and successful, scoring as many as 56 seats in the Knesset at one point. Then things changed.
“1977 was a monumental year, in which the Likud took power for the first time, and ever since then, the elections produced deadlocks,” said Migdal. “The Avodah party should have taken a hard look at itself back then, and its current collapse, with only 13 ministers, is derived from those past mistakes.”
Elections in the past 25 years have seen a lot of fragmentation, and these latest elections have only increased that fragmenting. The Likud landed 27 seats and the incumbent Kadima came out slightly ahead, with 28 seats. With both leading parties being so small, it will be very difficult for them to form a government, and likely impossible to keep it together for four straight years. The PM candidate will have to agree to harsh and demeaning concessions to form a fragile pact, and it’s likely the first major disagreement will lead to a complete breakdown.
Is there a way out?
“Benyamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud right-wing party, has publicly claimed that he will be the next PM, and I don’t bet against him,” Migdal told the audience. While Tzipi Livni, head of Kadima, the moderate party, is ahead by a nose, Migdal believes she probably won’t be successful in reaching an agreement unless she goes for a national-unity government with the Likud. This too is a long shot, as Likud called the idea “delusional.”
While Livni could possibly reach some deal with Shas, an ultra-orthodox religious party, Shas is well-known for hard-core negotiations. Livni’s refusal to cave in to Shas demands following current prime minister Ehud Olmert’s resignation led to these elections in the first place, noted Migdal. In the long run, Migdal believes that the only possible path toward a more stable leadership is a reform in the election system. Kadima’s campaign promised reform, but changes in the election system have been discussed for many years and never materialized.
The success of Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, is unusual, Migdal said. This party originally targeted the Russian-immigrant demographic, but has recently grown to represent many right-wing views, including proposing the idea of requiring Israelis to sign a loyalty oath to the Jewish State. Both Netanyahu and Livni have expressed they wouldn’t be comfortable teaming up with Lieberman, so the chance of Yisrael Beiteinu joining the coalition appears unlikely, but its growth speaks volumes about the Israeli public’s state of mind.
With President Barack Obama in the White House, things might become much more interesting, Migdal said.
“Obama is devoting high-quality manpower to the Middle East,” he said. “The relationship with Iran is becoming something that resembles the Cold War with Russia, and this puts Israel in a unique position to be on the opposite site of this seesaw,” he said.
According to Migdal, if Israel will be able to reach some sort of agreement, or at least a little stability with the Palestinians, it could be an important strategic partner to the U.S. in the Middle East, alongside Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and possibly Iraq.
“Shimon Peres, Israel’s president, is probably one of the few who understand this, as evident by an article he published in the Washington Post recently” said Migdal. “He’s a great strategist, while Livni and Netanyahu aren’t that great at it…. Obama is taking a broad view on the subject, and the Israeli government needs to recognize both sides of this problem. We can only hope they seize this opportunity, for everyone’s sake.”